The market is moving because of the fall in certified stocks, which reached 224,000 bags this week, its lowest level for over 24 years.

Reports of a negative impact on yields for the 24/25 harvest in Brazil, due to a heatwave followed by rain forecasts, have also contributed to this climate of uncertainty.

In terms of fundamentals, the news is more positive for Arabica, as two private sources continue to see the potential for 24/25 exceeding 70 million bags in Brazil, the second biggest production cycle ever.

However, this production cycle is expected to contain at least 24 million bags of Conilon which is worth considering, because it can’t all be about Arabica....

Export figures from Brazil have also confirmed a third consecutive month of 4 million bags! In the past, 3 million bags was considered a large export volume.

Once again, much of this is Conilon, but the volume and trend are a reminder that there is a lot of coffee out there.

The start of the Central American cycle is in the pipeline, while Colombia has just published two consecutive months of higher monthly production than last year.

Here too, let's hope that the fundamentals continue to confirm better availability. Sooner or later, and without a climate shock, this should be reflected in prices.

Other signs offering a little hope in the medium term...

The end of the decline in volume of certified coffee?

After months of no interest in certifying coffee against the exchange, recent weeks have seen an increase in the quantity of coffee awaiting certification. This would mean that the prices recently reached, the low demand for exports (use of stocks in Europe) and differentials (falling) are beginning to encourage some players to use the exchange as a final buyer.

More certified coffee origins

In January, 95% of certified stock was made up of Brazil and Honduras, almost no other origin was represented. The rate is now 85%, and despite the drop in the volume of certified coffee. It is clear that new origins have decided to certify, including Papua New Guinea, Peru, Rwanda and Tanzania.

The solution for unsold coffee?

It has been said that a significant volume of coffee from Peru and even Colombia, as well as unsold coffee from Central America 22/23, could soon end up in certified stock. Analysis of the coffees submitted for certification over the next few weeks will tell, especially for origins such as Peru and Honduras.

It is possible that unsold coffees from Central American origins for the end of the 22/23 cycle, or even from Peru, could end up on the stock exchange, which would have the advantage of boosting the total volume, and thus easing the pressure on prices.

It is essential that the market return to a carry position in anticipation of a fall in prices and, above all, a return to a 'normal' situation for the industry, particularly exporters and importers.